Paytm shares rally 50% in 6 months, but Nomura sees 33% more upside, initiates with 'buy'; check target price, rationale
Paytm share price target: Paytm's growth prospects have come into focus after global brokerage Nomura initiated coverage on the digital payments company with a Buy recommendation and a target price of ₹2,250. The target implies a potential upside of 33% from the last closing price, even after the stock's nearly 50% rally over the past six months.
Nomura's bullish outlook rests on several factors, including growth in digital payments, deeper penetration of merchant lending, an improving cost structure and potential revenue from UPI merchant discount rates (MDR). The brokerage also sees opportunities in international expansion and enterprise artificial intelligence (AI), which could add to Paytm's longer-term growth prospects.
Nomura expects Paytm's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96% between FY26 and FY29. At current levels, the stock trades at around 26 times its estimated FY29 enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA).
However, the investment case is not without risks. A deterioration in asset quality in the lending business and intensifying competition remain key concerns for the brokerage.
Paytm shares have delivered mixed returns over shorter periods despite their strong medium-term performance. The stock has gained 3.5% in one week but declined 5.4% over one month. Over three months, it has advanced 24%, while its six-month gain stands at nearly 50%. On a one-year basis, the stock has risen 33%.
Paytm touched a 52-week high of ₹1,856.50 on September 16, 2026, after hitting a 52-week low of ₹947.10 in March 2026.
The recent rally has not deterred Nomura from seeing further upside, with the brokerage pointing to the potential for stronger payments revenue, improved operating leverage and new business opportunities to support earnings growth.
Paytm's growth prospects are in focus after Nomura initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹2,250, implying 33% upside. The brokerage expects EBITDA to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96% over FY26-29F. The stock trades at around 26 times its estimated FY29F EV/EBITDA, although competition and lending asset quality remain key risks.
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